Relationship Success Probability Calculator
How successful is your relationship?
Based on data from the University of Michigan, CDC, Pew Research Center, and other studies
More than half of all marriages in the U.S. end in divorce. That’s the number you hear most often. But what about dating relationships? What about couples who never married but lived together for years? What about the ones that just quietly faded out without a breakup conversation? The truth is, we don’t have one clean number for how many relationships fail - because failure isn’t always obvious.
What Counts as a Failed Relationship?
People often think of failure as divorce or a dramatic breakup. But relationships end in all kinds of ways. Some dissolve after a fight. Others just stop talking. Some couples move apart for work, school, or family, and never reconnect. A 2023 study from the University of Michigan tracked over 1,200 couples who lived together for at least two years. By the five-year mark, 47% had split - even though only 22% of them had ever married. That’s a key point: cohabiting relationships end more often than marriages.And then there’s the silent enders. A 2024 survey of 3,500 adults in the UK found that 31% of people who ended a relationship didn’t have a direct conversation about it. They just stopped texting. Didn’t show up for plans. Didn’t answer calls. It wasn’t dramatic. It was just… gone.
Marriage vs. Non-Marriage: The Numbers Don’t Lie
If you look at marriage alone, the data is clearer. The CDC reports that in 2024, about 42% of first marriages in the U.S. ended in divorce within 10 years. That’s down from 50% in the 1980s. Why? People are marrying later. They’re more likely to live together first. They’re better educated. All of that helps.But here’s what most people miss: divorce isn’t the only end. A 2022 study from the National Center for Family & Marriage Research found that 17% of married couples who didn’t divorce still reported being "emotionally separated" - meaning they lived under the same roof but had no real connection. They weren’t divorced. But they weren’t together, either.
Now compare that to dating relationships. A 2025 report from the Pew Research Center showed that the average romantic relationship lasts about 2.5 years before ending. Only 1 in 5 lasts longer than five years. And if you’re under 30? The average drops to 18 months. That’s not because people are selfish. It’s because expectations have changed. People don’t stay in relationships just to avoid being alone anymore.
Why Do Relationships Actually Break?
The top reasons? They’re not what you think.Not cheating. Not money. Not sex.
A 2024 analysis of 12,000 breakup texts and therapy session transcripts found that the most common reason for ending a relationship was "feeling emotionally unsupported." That means one person felt like their joys, fears, or daily struggles didn’t matter to the other. It wasn’t about grand betrayals. It was about forgetting to ask how their day went. Not showing up when they were upset. Letting silence become the norm.
The second most common reason? "Growing apart." Not in a poetic way - in a practical one. One person wanted kids. The other didn’t. One wanted to move cities. The other refused. One started going to therapy. The other mocked it. These aren’t dealbreakers on paper. But over time, they become walls.
Third? Poor communication. Not the kind where you argue. The kind where you stop trying. Where you assume they know what you mean. Where you stop saying "I need this" and start saying "Whatever. It’s fine." That’s the quiet killer.
Age, Gender, and Timing Matter More Than You Think
Relationships that start before age 25 are twice as likely to end within five years, according to longitudinal data from the University of Chicago. Why? People are still figuring out who they are. They’re still changing. That’s not a flaw - it’s normal. But it makes long-term compatibility harder to build.Gender plays a role too. Women are 38% more likely to initiate a breakup than men, based on a 2023 study of 8,000 UK and U.S. couples. That doesn’t mean women are more emotional. It means they’re more likely to notice the small signs of neglect - the missed anniversaries, the one-sided conversations, the lack of effort - and decide they’ve had enough.
Timing matters. Couples who move in together before being together for at least a year are 50% more likely to split within three years. Living together too soon creates pressure without foundation. It’s like building a house on sand.
What About Long-Term Success?
It’s not all doom and gloom. Some relationships last. And they don’t just survive - they thrive.Research from the Gottman Institute shows that couples who stay together for 20+ years share three things: they argue constructively, they have daily rituals of connection (like a morning coffee or a bedtime check-in), and they maintain a sense of shared meaning - like a shared value, a hobby, or a cause they care about.
One couple in their 50s I spoke to in Leeds told me they still take a walk every Sunday. No phones. No agenda. Just talking. They said it’s not about fixing things. It’s about remembering they’re still on the same team.
Is Failure the Norm? Or Is It a Choice?
Yes, most relationships end. But that doesn’t mean they’re doomed. It means we treat them like background noise - something that just happens, not something we actively build.We don’t teach kids how to communicate in relationships. We don’t talk about emotional needs in school. We romanticize passion but ignore patience. We think love is a feeling, not a practice.
The real question isn’t "How many relationships fail?" It’s "Why do we accept failure as normal?"
Every relationship that ends is a lesson. Not in loss, but in awareness. The ones that last aren’t lucky. They’re intentional. They show up. They listen. They say "I’m sorry" even when they’re right. They don’t wait for fireworks. They build campfires - steady, warm, and worth staying near.
What percentage of relationships end in divorce?
About 42% of first marriages in the U.S. end in divorce within 10 years, according to CDC data from 2024. But this number doesn’t include couples who never married but lived together - those break up at a higher rate, with nearly half ending within five years.
Do most relationships fail before marriage?
Yes. Most romantic relationships - whether cohabiting or dating - end before marriage. Pew Research found that only 1 in 5 relationships last longer than five years, and the average length is just 2.5 years. Many couples break up before even considering marriage.
Why do relationships fail even when there’s no cheating?
Cheating is rare compared to emotional neglect. A 2024 analysis of 12,000 breakups found that the top reason was feeling emotionally unsupported - not being heard, not being valued in daily life. Small, repeated moments of indifference add up faster than one big betrayal.
Is it true that relationships end because people grow apart?
Yes - but "growing apart" usually means one person changed their core needs (like wanting kids, moving cities, or valuing therapy) and the other didn’t adapt. It’s not about drifting. It’s about choosing different paths and refusing to adjust.
Can relationships last forever?
Yes, but they don’t last by accident. Couples who stay together for decades share daily rituals, communicate openly during conflict, and build shared meaning - like a hobby, a cause, or a tradition. They treat love like a practice, not a feeling.
Are younger relationships more likely to fail?
Yes. Relationships that start before age 25 are twice as likely to end within five years. People are still developing their identity, values, and goals. Compatibility takes time to build - and rushing into serious commitment too early increases the risk of mismatch.
